Testing archaeological predictive models: a rough guide

Archaeological predictive modelling is an essential instrument for archaeological heritage management in the Netherlands. It is used to decide where to do archaeological survey in the case of development plans. However, very little attention is paid to testing the predictions made. Model quality is established by means of peer review, rather than by quantitative criteria. In this paper the main issues involved with predictive model testing are discussed. The potential of resampling methods for improved predictive model quality is investigated, and the problems associated with obtaining representative test data sets are highlighted

Case studies in archaeological predictive modelling

In this thesis, a collection of papers is put together dealing with various quantitative aspects of predictive modelling and archaeological prospection. Among the issues covered are the effects of survey bias on the archaeological data used for predictive modelling, and the complexities of testing predictive models using both old and new archaeological data. Furthermore, an attempt is made to reconcile the worlds of expert judgment and quantitative analysis by means of multicriteria decision making techniques and Bayesian statistics. The thesis also offers some alternative approaches to predictive modelling, like using prehistoric land use reconstructions, and the integrating of social and cultural factors into the models. It also giv es an up to date review of the international and Dutch state of affairs in archaeological predictive modeling..LEI Universiteit LeidenRAAP Archeologisch Adviesbureau BVComputer applications - ou

Geoarchaeological studies in central Crete based on remote sensing and GIS

Areal analysis in geoarchaeological applications can be improved by implementing a wider set of geoecological parameters in order to provide more precise results. The aim of the paper is to show how geoscientific ground-truth and techniques can be used for detailed archaeological studies using a comprehensive set of environmental variables that might have influenced ancient settlement patterns. The project focuses on spatial patterns of archaeological sites, as well as Bronze Age communication paths in Central Crete by using a multi-methodical approach (surveying, Remote Sensing, DEM-analysis, least-cost analysis, candidate site detection, predictive modelling, etc.). In contrast to conventional archaeological GIS applications this enhanced strategy offers promising prospects regarding landscape and settlement modelling

A Bibliography on the Application of GIS in Archaeology and Cultural Heritage

Geographical Information Systems (GIS) applications to archaeological projects of different scales, chronological contexts and cultural milieux has accrued by now a long history and bibliography. Hopefully the phases of experimentation and almost blind testing are over, even if GIS applications are still sometimes being labeled as “new technologies”

The Cultural Landscape & Heritage Paradox; Protection and Development of the Dutch Archeological-Historical Landscape and its European Dimension

To what extent can we know past and mainly invisible landscapes, and how we can use this still hidden knowledge for actual sustainable management of landscape’s cultural and historical values. It has also been acknowledged that heritage management is increasingly about ‘the management of future change rather than simply protection’. This presents us with a paradox: to preserve our historic environment, we have to collaborate with those who wish to transform it and, in order to apply our expert knowledge, we have to make it suitable for policy and society. The answer presented by the Protection and Development of the Dutch Archaeological-Historical Landscape programme (pdl/bbo) is an integrative landscape approach which applies inter- and transdisciplinarity, establishing links between archaeological-historical heritage and planning, and between research and policy. This is supported by two unifying concepts: ‘biography of landscape’ and ‘action research’. This approach focuses upon the interaction between knowledge, policy and an imagination centered on the public. The European perspective makes us aware of the resourcefulness of the diversity of landscapes, of social and institutional structures, of various sorts of problems, approaches and ways forward. In addition, two related issues stand out: the management of knowledge creation for landscape research and management, and the prospects for the near future. Underlying them is the imperative that we learn from the past ‘through landscape’

Agent based predictive models in archaeology

For over 40 years archaeologists have been using predictive modelling to locate archaeological sites. While great strides have been made in the theory and methods of site predictive modelling there are still unresolved issues like a lack of theory, poor data, biased datasets and poor accuracy and precision in the models. This thesis attempts to address the problems of poor model performance and lack of theory driven models through the development of a new method for predictive modelling, agent based modelling. Applying GIS and agent based modelling tools to a project area in southeaster New Mexico this new methodology explored possible behaviours that resulted in site formation such as access to water resources, travel routes and resource exploitation. The results in regards to improved accuracy over traditional methods were inconclusive as a data error was found in the previously created predictive models for the area that were to be used as a comparison. But, the project was more successful in providing explanatory reasons for site placement based on the models created. This work has the potential to open up predictive modelling to wider archaeology audiences, such as those based at universities. Additional findings also impacted other areas of archaeological investigation outside of predictive modelling, such as least cost path analyses and resource gathering analyses

Conditional GIS surfaces and their potential for archaeological predictive modelling

Conditional GIS surfaces are well known in archaeological applications. Perhaps the most familiar of these are visibility analyses and friction layers (the basis of cost distance evaluations). Archaeological studies however tend to limit the use of such surfaces to purely environmental variables with little explanatory or analytical power. Friction, for example, is usually constructed entirely from a generated slope surface, occasionally with the addition of some physical barriers (such as waterways or perhaps vegetation differences). There are as well, a multitude of potential “conditions” to place upon spatial parameters which include strongly cultural ideas about knowledge, perception, familiarity, territoriality, risk, and other kinds of cognitive behaviours. Here we explore the kinds of “conditions” which could provide a great deal of explanatory or analytical understanding to our GIS archaeological applications, to categorize them into a meaningful framework, and to provide examples from a recent predictive model of how such surfaces can be applied

Diverse perceptions of smart spaces

This is the era of smart technology and of ‘smart’ as a meme, so we have run three workshops to examine the ‘smart’ meme and the exploitation of smart environments. The literature relating to smart spaces focuses primarily on technologies and their capabilities. Our three workshops demonstrated that we require a stronger user focus if we are advantageously to exploit spaces ascribed as smart: we examined the concept of smartness from a variety of perspectives, in collaboration with a broad range of contributors. We have prepared this monograph mainly to report on the third workshop, held at Bournemouth University in April 2012, but do also consider the lessons learned from all three. We conclude with a roadmap for a fourth (and final) workshop, which is intended to emphasise the overarching importance of the humans using the spac